Chancellor poised for £15bn headroom

Afternoon all,

John Healey is set to carve out a minimum £15bn of fiscal headroom at the Budget, according to City analysts. With all eyes on the Budget tomorrow, the Chancellor has considerably less flexibility than Rachel Reeves back at the Spring Statement (that was £23.6bn back then). But that was before the war in Iran and soaring energy prices…

Meanwhile, Poundland’s owners are resisting a takeover bid from an Irish property firm and instead pushing the discount retailer close to collapse.

And our deputy Life&Style editor Adam Bloodworth delves into gherkins, which could be the surprising winner of Healey’s first Budget.

We’ll be back in your inboxes at 8am tomorrow. In the meantime, have a great evening!

Matt

Economists at major banks are anticipating Healey’s buffer against the main fiscal rule to shrink slightly. The borrowing rule states that day-to-day government spending should at least match projected tax receipts by 2030.

Top economists have said the Office for Budget Responsibility, the independent forecaster whose calculations determine whether the Chancellor has a grip over public finances, will list a number of costs from higher borrowing in part due to the Iran war. 

The leading bidder to take over the struggling discount retailer, Martin Property Group (MPG), has failed to win the favour of Poundland’s owners because it has not offered to pay for a loan up front, sources said.

Big Four giant EY posted a two per cent rise in UK fee income over the past year and hiked payouts for its partners, even as its consulting arm came under pressure from what it said was a “challenging market”.

For the financial year ending 3 July 2026, the firm reported UK fee income of £3.86bn, up from £3.78bn the previous year. EY’s total pre-tax profits also rose to £702m, up from £679m.

Private credit is projected to reach $4.5tn in assets under management by 2030. But as the market matures, fundraising alone will no longer define success. As investors become more discerning, Investec’s Greg Betz and Alexandre Neiss explain how lenders must navigate the growing pressure to deploy capital while maintaining credit discipline.

The government has been urged to slash red tape and boost housebuilding in the UK as the rate of construction of new homes falls well behind Labour’s own targets. 

A group of property and investment leaders have handed a set of proposals to the government which they say will get stalled housing schemes moving and tackle the burden of building regulation. 

Ahead of the Autumn Budget 2026, and the threat of cheaper gherkins for all, Adam Bloodworth on his love for the humble pickled vegetable, which is both delightfully crunchy and a hack to health.

The Debt Management Office has been forced to sell nearly £5bn of five-year gilts at their highest interest rate since 2008, underscoring the fiscal challenge facing John Healey on the eve of his maiden Budget.

The body responsible for selling the UK’s debt said it had issued £4.5bn of bonds maturing in 2032 at a yield of 5.04 per cent on Tuesday. The figure is the highest annual payment since the global financial crisis sent stock markets plunging and interest rates to historic lows.

So Getty Images has filed for bankruptcy. Excuse me while I locate my microscopic mandolin. Oh dear, how sad, never mind. I, for one, will not shed any tears. To misquote Churchill, never have so many photographers owed such a debt of ingratitude to so few. Back in the day we were all shafted by Getty, albeit sometimes unknowingly, writes Andy Blackmore.

Asia has become a key battleground for Infantino as he looks to extend his decade-long tenure at next year’s elections despite a widespread backlash to his World Cup sell-off plan.

The Asian Football Confederation initially aligned itself with European and North American calls for change at the top of Fifa but last week performed a U-turn and backed Infantino.

AI has entered the legal world, but rather than making lawyers lazier, it should force them to think harder, writes Alex Fortescue-Webb in today’s Notebook.

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