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Good morning,

The Chancellor is “poised” for a tax raid on the banking sector at the Budget on 28 October. That’s according to a report in The Guardian. John Healey could reverse the Jeremy Hunt-era decision to restore the banking surcharge back to eight per cent (it’s currently at three per cent). This was a lever that Rachel Reeves never pulled as Chancellor.

Meanwhile, the managing director of the IMF has warned that countries are not sufficiently prepared for the hit to their tax revenue that will ensue when AI starts to really pummel the jobs market.

So, here’s everything you need to know this morning. We’ll be back in your inbox at noon with Midday Markets.

Matt

BANKING
John Healey ‘poised’ to target banks with Budget tax raid

The Chancellor has faced fierce lobbying from the left of the Labour party and trade unions to slap higher taxes on the sector following the bumper profits reaped by industry this year.

Healey is now understood to have decided to target the sector for a cash raid as he looks to balance the books on 28 October, according to reports.

FTSE 100 LIVE
Stocks to dip as tech rebounds from sell-off; Oil set for weekly gain

London’s blue-chip index is poised to dip this morning as tech stocks rebound after a sell-off earlier in the week.

Over in Asia, equities bounced back overnight, reversing some of the losses from a heavy selling session after investors ditched their tech exposure following questions around cloud company Corewave’s debt pile fuelling fears of AI financing.

AI
IMF boss warns on AI ‘tax erosion’ if jobs are wiped out

Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the IMF, said governments may be ill-prepared for a potential slump in tax revenue brought on by AI’s impact on the labour market. 

At the fund’s summit in Bangkok, Georgieva has issued a series of warnings on the impact of AI, calling the technology a “slow-moving tsunami” that could affect 60 per cent of jobs in wealthy countries. 

PENSIONS
‘Absurd’: Pension savers refunded £188m after HMRC overtaxes withdrawals 

Tens of thousands of taxpayers were handed money back from HMRC last year after savers had too much tax deducted from their pension withdrawals, City AM can reveal.

HMRC processed 54,166 pension withdrawal repayments in the 2025/26 financial year, worth around £188m, according to figures obtained through a Freedom of Information request.

SPORT BUSINESS
Fifa still refusing to share World Cup sell-off papers, says FA chair

Football Association chair Debbie Hewitt says the Fifa Council is still being denied full transparency over Gianni Infantino’s aborted World Cup sell-off plan.

Infantino apologised to the Council today as it met for the first time since controversy erupted over Fifa Forward Enterprise (FFE), a new private company Infantino lined up investors for without telling the governing body’s supposed steering committee.

OPINION
New inheritance tax rules will drastically change pension use

For years, pensions have been one of the most effective ways for families to pass wealth to the next generation. But from April 2027, that will change, with most unused pension funds being brought into the scope of inheritance tax.

New inheritance tax rules will drastically alter how people use their pensions, and put a lot of individuals in difficult positions, writes Steve Gauke.

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