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Anyone old enough today to vote or buy a pint was alive when the 2008 financial crisis struck, so the phrase “too big to fail” may trigger a bout of cold sweats. 

Apologies in advance, then, for opening any old wounds but the phrase is back in circulation via the discourse around Manchester City and, specifically, whether the risk of contagion should be considered by the independent commission mulling over how hard to throw the book at them.

To attempt to answer that thorny question we commissioned some exclusive economic modelling of the impact of various degrees of punishment on Man City and the clubs to whom they owe money. 

You’ll have to read our article for the findings but here’s a taster: the question isn’t simply whether Manchester City are too big to fail, but who has the most to lose if they do… 

Welcome to The Turnover, a weekly newsletter on the business of sport from City AM. It’s Frank here with almost as many riveting dispatches from our world as clubs who may be anxiously hoping that City don’t go bust.

Unless you’ve been under a rock you’ll be aware of Luke Littler’s Netflix special. Facing a backlash before the show has even aired tonight, the makers have defended the selection of well-known faces from the pro circuit in their ‘amateur’ line-up, reports Sam Cunningham.   

English rugby is embarking on a Stateside charm offensive in a bid to woo investors and sponsors, Matt reveals. Prem Rugby boss Simon Massie-Taylor is among those rolling up his sleeves to talk turkey with Wall Street’s finest. 

London Stadium bosses want the erstwhile home of West Ham United to rival Wembley for blockbuster boxing events, Sam writes. They hope lifting the capacity for fight nights to 85,000 will pull in the punters and lighten the burden on the taxpayer of the loss-making venue.

As Formula 1 prepares for Kimi Antonelli’s likely coronation as its youngest ever champion this weekend, Matt gets all haute couture on us and looks at how the paddock has become an extension of the catwalk for fashion’s biggest brands.

Ed Warner has had enough of hearing about padel from Britain’s growing legion of players and says Olympic chiefs are right not to fast-track it into the Games. He does, however, concede it’s eclipsed squash as the closest ball-and-racket challenger to tennis. 

Question: What do Australia, China, Qatar and France have in common? Answer: They’re all engaging in rugby diplomacy in a bid to increase their influence in one of the planet’s most important trade routes, Matt explains in this fascinating piece.

Budget round-up: Olympics bid funding can’t offset tax hits and red tape, government told; bookies are not happy at being taxed more; and bad news for footballers and clubs on image rights.

ICYMI: He may not have won the Ballon d’Or but it turns out Kylian Mbappe is incredibly influential; Asian football is riven with in-fighting over Fifa; freefalling Burnley suffer more accounting strife. 

There’s never a quiet week in the business of sport but The Turnover is here to make sure you can meet your future obligations, at least as far as being clued-up goes. Have a great weekend.

Are Manchester City too big to fail? Here's what economic modelling says

It’s a theory that the independent commission currently mulling City’s punishment – while the club pursues in parallel an appeal against the original findings – will have to consider.

But how credible is the threat of contagion? Is it a genuine risk or a last-ditch ploy from those advocating for leniency towards England’s most successful club of the last 15 years? In short, are Manchester City really too big to fail?

Netflix defends Beat Luke Littler line-up after backlash at pros’ inclusion

Netflix insists that Fallon Sherrock and other faces from the PDC circuit were made to queue up and audition alongside thousands of hopefuls before being selected for its new live show, Beat Luke Littler.

The programme has attracted a backlash from darts fans after it was initially billed as a chance for pub players to take on Littler over one leg of 501 in a bid to win £501,000 – only for a series of well-known players to be announced in the line-up last week.

From our partners

Prem Rugby CEO set for US trip to woo banks and private equity

The chief executive is set to use the break in play provided by November’s international schedule to head to the United States, just weeks after holding talks with Eddie Hearn’s Matchroom about a formal marketing collaboration.

It is understood that Massie-Taylor, the former Rugby Football Union chief commercial officer, will speak to private equity houses and family offices about investing in the seven Prem Rugby teams who are yet to secure big-name backing.

West Ham’s London Stadium eyes capacity increase to take fight to Wembley

London Stadium bosses want to relax seating restrictions for boxing in a bid to rival Wembley for mega fights and offset losses caused by anchor tenant West Ham’s relegation to the Championship.

The stadium costs the taxpayer £19m a year after rent was halved following West Ham’s relegation, while stewarding costs have risen because of the increase in home matches in the second tier.

Fashion in Formula 1: How the paddock became global catwalk

Teams now have fashion labels as sponsors, traditional sports apparel brands are delivering entire collections to the paddock, and next year the grid will gain a fashion house as a primary sponsor when two of the 22 cars will race under the Gucci Racing Alpine Formula One Team brand.

“Every livery, suit and piece of trackside branding is broadcast globally across every session, all weekend. Few sports offer a mixture of mass-market appeal and exclusivity,” Niklas Oppermann, co-founder of Williams Racing sponsor Carl Friedrik, tells City AM.

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